Foreign-funded Organization Begets Unreliable Research *updated*

On October 22^nd, the Gallup 2013 survey conducted by an American research-based and global performance management consulting company released its results, which showed that most Malaysians trust the judicial system and the courts. In fact, the survey showed that 70 per cent of Malaysians polled expressed confidence in the rule of law in Malaysia, 27 per cent had no confidence, and the rest said they did not know or refused to answer. The 70 per cent confidence level in the judiciary is the highest among five Southeast Asian countries that took part in the survey. Thais and Vietnamese showed a 66 per cent confidence level while only 61% Filipinos trusted the judicial system and the courts. Only 53% Indonesians trusted their system.

Eight days later, Merdeka Centre announced its results of a survey conducted between October 11 and 26. How did they analyze their data in THREE days, compile into a report, and then issue a press release on the fourth day after the survey ended?

Note that the Gallup 2013 survey was conducted by TNS (formerly Frank Small Associates) Malaysia, an international research company with a very good award-winning track record. The CEO of TNS Asia-Pacific has been with TNS since 1971. It took them months to analyze the data from a sample of 1000 people interviewed through phone calls made in Bahasa Malaysia, English, and Chinese between Sept 17 and Nov 29 last year.

On the other hand, our super duper Speedy Gonzales Merdeka Centre could analyze the data from 1005 people in THREE working days. Very dodgy indeed!!

What is more worrying is the inaccuracies in the latest statement of Merdeka Centre.

Merdeka Centre's Claims:

#1. Datuk Seri Najib Razak's approval rating slipped six percentage points to 48% this month from the last survey done in August.

#2. Najib scored a 54% approval rating in August, after he took charge of operations to recover the flight MH17 wreckage, its black boxes and victims, when the Malaysia Airlines plane was shot down over Ukraine in July.

A visit to Merdeka Centre’s official site revealed that the two latest polls conducted were:

A. Public Opinion Survey 2014                                                   b. Public Opinion Survey 2014

Peninsular Malaysia Voter Survey                                                   Peninsular Malaysia Voter Survey

PM Job Approval Rating                                                                  11th October – 26th October 2014

9th – 17th June 2014                                        

The title for research (a) is already not just a mouthful but highly suspicious. For a study that has two sections in its scope, the report has only EIGHT pages. The report for research (b) is 18 pages long.

Nowhere in its website was there any survey conducted in August. What can you make of a centre for opinion research that cannot even get its facts in order, dates for surveys correct and even research findings correct? If there was such a survey, why didn't Merdeka Centre upload it? When was the press release for the August Study to prove that there was such an alleged study?

The last study conducted by Merdeka Centre before its alleged one in October was conducted from 9^th to 17^th June and released in July. Its report clearly showed 48% of the respondents were satisfied with the PM – exactly the SAME result as the alleged October poll. Please see the following diagram. Hence, its latest statement issued on 30th October about the Prime Minister's rankings is factually WRONG.

What is the real motive of Merdeka Centre’s latest press statement slamming the Prime Minister?

Funded by NED (National Endowment for Democracy), it has no other choice but to do its master’s bidding to tackle the positive results from the Gallup polls on Malaysia and also to shame the Prime Minister in the light of certain court proceedings.

Hard pressed for time, you can see for yourself how Merdeka Centre tweaked its old reports.

Look at the second page of the following reports. The wordings are EXACTLY the same – what was changed include the date and total respondents. If the total respondents are different, how can the margin of error be the same? Please look at the following diagrams. I have placed the July report and October report side by side to show you how LITTLE work they did in comparison to the type of statistics and data Gallup polls produced from their research.

Please visit THIS SITE to get all the reports to test their results and data for yourself. Check to see the similarities in the format and content of the report.

Merdeka Centre’s results are highly questionable because of the vagueness in the breakdown of the results. To support my stand, please refer to the following diagrams that show results for the Gallup polls.

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

Table 4

Table 5

Table 6

Table 7 to 14

The above tables show in detail the responses of different categories of respondents according to various social variables used to differentiate the sample.

Hence, it can be seen the many contradictions, inaccuracies of Merdeka Centre’s press statements, reports and inherent weaknesses in their research method have all combined to dilute the credibility of the results Merdeka Centre CLAIMS they harvested.

The quality of the results depends on the motive of the research and the type of skilled interviewers hired for the social research. Their website indicates how Merdeka Centre employs SPM holders to do their research. One wonders if they were trained to conduct telephone interviews.

Merdeka Centre has revealed nothing about their Sampling method, sampling size or the population from which they selected their sample. We know nothing of the format of their research methodology because it seems to be one methodology covers all polls as nothing is elaborated.

We also know nothing of how their researchers used accepted statistical techniques to weigh the responses to make the data more representative of their sample.

Due to so many inherent weaknesses, it is highly probably that Merdeka Centre poll results are questionable in reliability of evidence, representativeness of their sample used and the validity of their results.

Until and unless they can undertake scientific methods in their research via foolproof methods concocted after a few pilot studies and carried out after rigorous training of interviewers, Merdeka Centre must stop misleading Malaysians with their highly inaccurate and unreliable results.

*Special thanks to WS and IL for their help for graphics.